Bad Old Days Are Here Again

December 2007 -- Russia is about to have a problem with the legal transfer of executive power.

Again.

Back in the Bad Old Days when the Romanovs ruled the country, power usually devolved onto the Crown Prince or Heir Apparent, just as soon as the Tsar died. The Tsar did not always die of natural causes. Back in the Really Bad Old Days, when the Soviets ran the place, the order of succession was a bit less orderly and a lot more brutal. When Lenin had his stroke, when Stalin died, when Khrushchev was removed, some combination of personalities would run the country for a time. That time period was over just as soon as one member of the ruling junta proved clever or savage enough to dispose of the others.

Somehow, miraculously almost, things changed in the 1990s. After the USSR imploded, Boris Yeltsin took power—peacefully. When Yeltsin retired, as dictated by the constitution rather than by force, Vladimir Putin took the reins after a peaceful (if not quite fair) election campaign. Putin’s reelection four years ago was a mere formality, as there was never going to be any transfer of power. By the end of his first term, Putin had effectively concentrated all power into the office of the president, silenced the opposition by means fair and foul, and taken over most of the mass media. But now the constitution dictates that Putin leave office.

Welcome to the Brand New Bad Old Days.

According to reports out of Moscow, Putin has declared that while he must stand down as president, there’s nothing to prevent him from becoming prime minister. Reuters reports:

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that suggestions he could head a future government as a prime minister were “realistic.”

Speaking at a congress of the main pro-Kremlin force, United Russian, Putin also announced he would head the party’s list for December’s parliamentary elections, guaranteeing him a place in the Duma (lower house of parliament).

Pretend you’re Putin’s putative successor to the presidency. Should Putin go ahead and rig his own prime ministership, then you’re in a dicey situation. You can assert your powers and name and dismiss your own prime minister, appoint your own regional governors, make the news outlets carry your version of the news, suppress your own oligarchs, enrich your own cronies, and do all other acts and things that Russian presidents may of right do. Or you can just give up right away and maybe not get shot in the belly, chest, and head.

Because that’s the deal in Putin’s Russia.

For this not to be true, you’d have to believe that Putin’s successor has no ambition of his own, not even any to be sparked by the perks of office. Or that Putin can put his ambition on simmer for four years. Or that Russia is big enough for two power centers.

What we do know is, sometime in the next few weeks, Putin will choose his own successor, and that man will run for president under the banner of the Russia United Party. We also know that man will win. Finally, we know—because Vladimir Putin says so—that Putin will run for Parliament and end up as its prime minister.

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The Russian constitution is stretched to suit the will of just one man.

Now, pretend for a moment that you’re the Constitution of the Russian Federation. You’ve been amended more times than an end-of-session pork-barrel spending bill, but you’re about to get a real workout. Over the course of just a few months or weeks, you’re going to go from a Size 14 president to a slender Size 2. And your new PM is going to gorge himself on you like the exploding Mr. Creosote in Monty Python’s Meaning of Life.

It’s safe to assume that after four years as prime minister, Putin will—as he’s already hinted—want to go back to being president. And so Mr. Creosote somehow gets put back together in a newer, smaller shape, and the president’s size 2 dress will need to be replaced with a new muumuu.

Or things could be simpler and weirder. Putin recently selected a non-entity named Viktor Zubkov as his new PM. It’s a sure thing that Zubkov is compliant, since his last job was the head of Russia’s financial crimes investigation agency and he was never murdered—not even once. Suppose he runs under Putin’s banner next year and—surprise!—becomes president. Then suppose he resigns immediately after taking office, or at least after some semi-dignified grace period.

Guess who would succeed him as president?

If you guessed Prime Minister Putin, you guessed right.

How much meaning is left in a constitution stretched and stitched to suit the will of just one man? The answer, of course, is: None. There’s no more rule of law, there’s no democratic succession.

All that’s left is Vlad the Bad.

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